By A cura di Michela Pereira

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However, their alternative simulation assuming correlated disturbances across countries tends to generate larger spillover effects. These results suggest that a higher impact of US shocks could arise from assetprice spillovers or the confidence channels. The findings in Bagliano and Morana (2011) also suggest a relatively more important role for the trade channel as a conduit of transmission of US economic developments to the rest of the world. In contrast, Bayoumi and Swiston (2009) find that the largest estimated contributions to spillovers come from financial rather than trade variables.

We measure the importance of each channel in transmitting shocks to South African GDP growth by the gap between the impulses’ responses in the presence of the particular channel to the counterfactual responses. The latter happens when the trade and financial channels are shut off respectively. We ascertain the importance of the particular channel when both impulse responses are not bounded within the same error bands. Otherwise, we conclude that the relevant channel has a weak, or no significant, effect on South African GDP growth.

The significant effect of the positive growth shocks emanating from Japan disappear when taking into account the ordering uncertainty. Russia’s growth impact on South African economic growth is diminished when using the Poirson and Weber approach. Overall, the results in this chapter indicate the sensitivity of South African growth dynamics to external growth shocks to various methodological approaches. 2 Evolution of South African growth before, during and after the recession in 2009Q1–Q3? The previous section relied on impulse responses to estimate the impact of growth spillovers from the G8 countries into South Africa.

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Alchimia. I testi della tradizione occidentale by A cura di Michela Pereira


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